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Spring in Brazil: cooler and rainier than last year, but still hot

According to the forecast provided by Meteum meteorologists, spring in Brazil will be cooler and rainier than last year, but still hot and dry relative to the climatic norm.

This spring, the country's weather will once again reflect the influence of global climate changes. In 9 megacities, the positive temperature anomaly will be significant: Brasília, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte, Manaus, Goiânia, Belém, São Luís, and Campo Grande. In all other cities, hotter weather compared to the long-term average is also expected, especially in October and November. However, fortunately, temperatures will be lower almost everywhere compared to the abnormal heat of 2023, with no new temperature records anticipated.

The situation with precipitation is more complex. On one hand, the rainfall pattern will return to the climatic norm across most states. The exceptions will be the state of Pará and the Northeastern region, including Recife, Salvador, São Luís, Belém, and Fortaleza. Droughts could be particularly severe in Fortaleza and Recife. In Recife, rainfall might reach record lows for the past 30 years, with only about 80 mm.

On the other hand, compared to the extremely dry 2023, this spring will be noticeably wetter across much of Brazil. Rainfall in Rio de Janeiro will increase by 1.5 times, in Manaus, Goiânia, and Belo Horizonte by 2 times, and in Campo Grande by almost 2.5 times. The next three months will also be wetter in São Paulo and Brasília. Overall, October to December will bring more rain than last year to the Northern, Central-West, and Southeastern regions, which is great news given the issue of widespread forest fires. Interestingly, the Southern region will also see rainfall return to the climatic norm across all states. However, compared to the abnormal spring of 2023, there will be significantly less rain in Curitiba (Paraná) and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul), by 1.3 and 1.6 times, respectively.

Monthly weather forecast in Brazil

At the end of September, rain is likely in São Paulo, Recife, Salvador, Campo Grande, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. In other cities, mostly clear weather is expected, as in Fortaleza and São Luís, or partly cloudy skies. The lowest daytime highs are forecasted for Porto Alegre (17-21°C), Curitiba (20-26°C), Salvador (24-28°C), Recife (26-29°C), and Rio de Janeiro (24-31°C). The highest temperatures are expected in Belém (33-38°C), Goiânia (36-39°C), Campo Grande (36-40°C), and Manaus (37-42°C).

In October, hotter and drier weather is expected compared to the climatic norm. However, it will be cooler and rainier in many central and northern states compared to 2023. A significant drop in average monthly temperatures and an increase in rainfall is forecasted in the Amazon region, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Bahia. In Manaus, rainfall is expected to be 3.5 times higher than last year (150 mm), in Campo Grande 2 times higher (130 mm), in Goiânia, Belém, and Salvador 1.5 times higher (100 mm, 25 mm, and 45 mm, respectively). Meanwhile, drier conditions are expected in Recife, Fortaleza, and the Southern and Southeastern regions. For example, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are expected to receive 1.5 times less rainfall—around 140 mm and 110 mm, respectively. Curitiba will receive 2 times less (around 170 mm).

In November, the situation will remain similar, but the noticeable drop in temperatures will affect not only the Amazon region, Goiás, Bahia, and Mato Grosso do Sul, but also Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro. In Belo Horizonte, 3.5 times more rain is expected compared to last year (185 mm), in Goiânia and Campo Grande 3 times more (195 mm and 155 mm), and in São Luís 2 times more (30 mm). In Belém and Manaus, 1.5 times more rain is expected (45 mm and 195 mm). A significant reduction in rainfall is forecasted for the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Ceará: up to 120 mm in Porto Alegre (3 times less) and up to 10 mm in Fortaleza (2 times less).

December will be dry and hot in the Northeastern corner. In Fortaleza, Recife, and Salvador, rainfall is expected to be half of what it was last year (28 mm, 28 mm, and 33 mm, respectively). However, in several states in the Amazon, the Central-West region, and the states of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and eastern Paraná, the last month before Christmas will be cool and rainy. Rainfall in Curitiba and São Paulo is expected to be 2.5 times higher than in 2023 (165 mm and 195 mm), in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, and Campo Grande 2 times higher (200 mm, 265 mm, and 205 mm), and in Manaus and Goiânia 1.5 times higher (310 mm and 225 mm).